OUR

HANDICAPPING

STORY

Hi, I'm Jimmy Steward. I live in Dayton, Ohio. I’m the guy that owns Horse Track Stats and JRR. I  have been selling my horse racing “tip-sheet” since 2015.  I closed my website in July of 2018 to work on a new algorithm that will bring more accuracy to my horse racing selections. I launched my new website Monday October 1st, 2018. I have made many friends on twitter and because of twitter, have built a close following in the horse racing community.

 

My career background is in statistics and as a Military and Civilian research analyst. I currently work full-time for a nation-wide retailer using my Profiling and Criminology background. How did I get into to predicting outcomes of Horse Races? For years I was a normal track handicapper, I studied the program, looked at Jockeys, Trainers, Owners, Horse Speeds, Sprinters, Closers. Overall Speed, etc… I also played a ton of vertical bets, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers!. If I hit 3 out of ten races I thought that was a good day. I also paid $20-$50 for those online tip sheets and found that a monkey picking numbers from a hat could do just as good!

 

Something changed in 2015, a light came on, and I thought what if I did not pay any attention to the daily race programs, etc.. and just look for a consensus of which horse will win the race? So I searched the internet and found 50-60 free websites with amateur and professional handicappers that listed their picks as to which horse will come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Of course if you ask 20 to 30 people who will win the race you get many different opinions. Hooray! that’s what I was looking for. If 20 people look at one race you will find that 70% of the people select the same horse to win and so on and so on.

 

Next, I assigned value to those assumptions and in a hierarchical/ordinal level of confidence. I looked at my Bible “The handbook of parametric and non-parametric statistical procedures” and there it was the “Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test” ….“Let X1, ... , XN be a set of N observations. The method presented here does not use the observations but rather the ranks of the observations. The rank of Xi among the N observations, denoted R(Xi), equals the number of X'j s ≤ xi. There are many cases where ranks are the observed values. For example, consider a contest where the judge has to rank the contests. It is also helpful to consider the ranks of the data where there are extreme outliers present” For more info see: https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat464/node/36

 

First, in order to run the test you need data. There are numerous people posting picks online. Next, place their picks in order as to finish order. What you will find is a consensus of which horse will win and a decrease in value for the next horse OR sometimes it might be a tie. For example: if six horses enter a race and you use 20 different handicappers you might see ten people pick the #1 to WIN, five people pick the #2 to WIN and the remaining five people may pick the 3, 4 and 5 to WIN. Next look at which handicappers pick for PLACE…Again out of 20 handicappers ten people pick the # 1 and seven people pick the #2 and three people pick #3,4 and 5...to PLACE. Again look at 3rd place and repeat the process. What was difficult about the process was assigning a weighted value for track bias, that took some time to master and after watching a years worth of racing (no betting) I nailed down the correct weighted formula per track.

 

So now you know how I get 3/4 of my numbers - the other 1/4 th of my data involves times and distance averages per horse.  In fact, I shut down my website of two-years "Horse Track Stats" just to work on making this aspect of my research more accurate. What I did was add a simple test of independence,using a 2x2 contingency table that looks something like this:

 

| Low Odds |  High Odds |

------------------------------------------------

(In the $)

By Track | 

By Grade | 

By Distance | 

------------------------------------------------

(NOT in the $)

By Track | 

By Grade | 

By Distance | 

------------------------------------------------

I use SPSS software to analyze my data. I look for results that are significant. Once you put  ALL the data together - BOOM! you get my selections! 

 

NOTE: if you are addicted to Gambling or can't control your betting decisions PLEASE don't not use my information.  My information is based on selecting the races that have the best potential to win. Wagering on every race only produces lost wagers. 

How I make my selections for Sports Betting

(Football and Basketball)

I have an easy algorithm that most people can replicate. The process takes time and most people simply do not have the mathematical software to accomplish this nor do they have the time to put into prognosticating after working 40-hours per week.

1. I look at the last 20-years of head to head match ups wins and losses

2. I take into account home and away wins and loss with "like" opponents

3. I create a bell curve based on points scored per season and per opponent

4. VERY IMPORTANT: Each player is on a point system and weighted based on their contribution towards wins and then their points are measured (sum) against opponents and then exacted for difference.

5. I complete an "analysis of variance", (ANOVA) which is a statistical method in which the variation in a set of observations is divided into distinct components.  Based on my type of data I conduct the one-way analysis of variance which  is used to determine whether there are any statistically significant differences between the means of the grouped data.

3-Days of detailed Tip-Sheets 

Kentucky Derby

Weekly Picks and Parlays

NFL

Daily Basketball Point Spreads and Money Line

NCAABB

96-Hours of pure Controlled Madness

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23 Years of Service

Captain USAR
Retired

Graduate of ISU

Indiana State
Terre Haute, IN

Over 20-years working with DoD &

Law Enforcement

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Statistician

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