SPORTS BETTING

MONEY LINE & POINT SPREAD

NCAA FOOTBALL

NFL FOOTBALL

The approach to money-line wagering on NCAA Football. 

 

There are 137 Division 1 football teams and over the course of a season each team plays a minimum of 6 home games which equates to 822 potential opportunities to wager. Roughly 65%  of these home teams are favored to win (N=492).  In 2019 there were 488 teams favored in 2018 it was 542 and in 2017 a total of 530 were favored.Currently there are 25 teams in the NCAA with over 90% win percentage when favored at home. Additionally, roughly 96% of all home teams when favored by 17 pts or more have won their games since 2014. The issue becomes finding a favorable money line. If we wager a money line on a home team favored by 17 points, the money line can vary from -600 to -975, there is a great deal of fluctuation in college football money lines. The -600 on a $200 wager returns $33.34 at -975 the return is $20.52. Therefore, with a probability of a money line loss at less than 2%, if you wager 5 to 10 games on a Saturday, it would be very profitable if you can secure a money line between -600 to -700. At -600, 10 games ($2,000 in wagers) nets $333.40 as opposed to a money line of -975 netting $205.20. Bottom line, in a 13-game season -600 returns $4,334.20 and a -975 returns $2,667.60 (Sept - Nov 3-months). And who couldn’t use an extra $4K in made 3-months.

Our data set consists of NFL home games from 2009 - 2019

The data is sliced by home teams favored by 1-touchdown or more and the money lines vary between -205 to -5000

 

645 games fit our data set

 

120 LOSSES

 2 TIES

523 WINS

 

The home money line win percentage overall is 81%

 

Money Line win % by category

 

-2000 to -5000 = 9 - 0

-1500 to 1999 = 8 - 2

-1000 to 1499 = 43 - 1

-900 to 999 = 19 - 4

-800 to 899 = 19 - 4

-700 to 799 = 24 - 2 - 1

-600 to 699 = 42 - 9

-500 to 599 = 74-15

-400 to 499 = 93 - 33

-300 to 399 = 180 - 46 - 1

-299 & below = 11 - 4

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