NFL
Football

NFL home games from 2009 - 2019. The data is sliced by home teams favored by 1-touchdown or more and the money lines vary between -205 to -5000

 

645 games fit our data set

 

120 LOSSES

2 TIES

523 WINS

 

The overall home money line win percentage is 81%.

 

Bottom line, our algorithm found the highest win % rate per point spread and corresponding money line. As we tested against 30 years of NFL data we have our potential loss probability down to less than 2%.

Football Money Line

A money line is a sports wager on which team will win the game. Simple as that. When you make a money line wager, you are wagering on who will win a contest, however, the sports book has a twist as to what they pay out. Using a 2019 NFL game example, (Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals) if you want to wager $100 on Kansas City to win using money line, The sports book will not give you $100 if Kansas City wins, instead, Vegas says the Kansas City win is only worth 12.5 cents on the dollar and therefore you get $12.50 for the $100 wager. Vegas wants you to pay a premium on a favored team if you want to make money.  The Kansas City money line odds are set at  (-800). This means, if you want to make $100 on a Kansas City win, you need to wager $800 which equals about 12.5% return on your wager. The sports book will gladly take your money if you are willing to assume the implied risk of Kansas City losing. 

American Football

P.T Barnum said  “there’s a sucker born every minute”

What about the 10 people that want to wager on the Bengals to win? the sports book entices Bengals fans by saying, hey please wager $100 on the Bengals we will pay $900 if the Bengals win. That’s right, will GIVE YOU $900 for a $100 wager. P.T Barnum said “There’s a sucker born every minute” a +900 deal is too good for most people to pass up. Hey, invest just a little and get back a ton of money. The sports book is counting on a bunch of people to feel that way and at a gain of 900% return on your investment people are eager to take the risk.

SPORT AI.jpg

Stock Market Meets Sports Wagering

I know what you're thinking,12.5-cents on the dollar, what a deal! When was the last time I invested $10k in the stock market and within 4-hours made 12.5% on my investment...well, you never have, no stock will EVER give you that.  However, sports books will gladly pay out 12.5-cents on the dollar, in fact, there is so little invested on a -800 they will give you your 12.5-cents back on the dollar with a smile. Sports books are raking in millions on $10, $20 and $50 wagers on the premise people get paid nine times their wager should the Bengals win. Vegas pays out +900 money lines at a .0008% rate.