NFL home games from 2009 - 2019. The data is sliced by home teams favored by 1-touchdown or more and the money lines vary between -205 to -5000
645 games fit our data set
The overall home money line win percentage is 81%.
Bottom line, our algorithm found the highest win % rate per point spread and corresponding money line. As we tested against 30 years of NFL data we have our potential loss probability down to less than 2%.
Football Money Line
A money line is a sports wager on which team will win the game. Simple as that. When you make a money line wager, you are wagering on who will win a contest, however, the sports book has a twist as to what they pay out. Using a 2019 NFL game example, (Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals) if you want to wager $100 on Kansas City to win using money line, The sports book will not give you $100 if Kansas City wins, instead, Vegas says the Kansas City win is only worth 12.5 cents on the dollar and therefore you get $12.50 for the $100 wager. Vegas wants you to pay a premium on a favored team if you want to make money. The Kansas City money line odds are set at (-800). This means, if you want to make $100 on a Kansas City win, you need to wager $800 which equals about 12.5% return on your wager. The sports book will gladly take your money if you are willing to assume the implied risk of Kansas City losing.
P.T Barnum said “there’s a sucker born every minute”
What about the 10 people that want to wager on the Bengals to win? the sports book entices Bengals fans by saying, hey please wager $100 on the Bengals we will pay $900 if the Bengals win. That’s right, will GIVE YOU $900 for a $100 wager. P.T Barnum said “There’s a sucker born every minute” a +900 deal is too good for most people to pass up. Hey, invest just a little and get back a ton of money. The sports book is counting on a bunch of people to feel that way and at a gain of 900% return on your investment people are eager to take the risk.
Stock Market Meets Sports Wagering
I know what you're thinking,12.5-cents on the dollar, what a deal! When was the last time I invested $10k in the stock market and within 4-hours made 12.5% on my investment...well, you never have, no stock will EVER give you that. However, sports books will gladly pay out 12.5-cents on the dollar, in fact, there is so little invested on a -800 they will give you your 12.5-cents back on the dollar with a smile. Sports books are raking in millions on $10, $20 and $50 wagers on the premise people get paid nine times their wager should the Bengals win. Vegas pays out +900 money lines at a .0008% rate.