College
Basketball

Over the past 25-years in College Basketball, home
teams with a -750 money line or higher have lost only 9-times. There have been 134,000 home games in the past 25-years and of those home games about 10% of those home teams per year get classified as -700 or higher. In fact the last time a +700 or higher won on a visitors court was Stephen F Austin which beat Duke on it’s home court in 2019. In fact, +700 teams have won less than 1 game a year in the
past 25 years.

 

Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency

Part of a number of formulas in basketball that have emerged as a result of the analytics revolution is The offensive efficiency number. The number is derived from a formula that charts points per 100 possessions. Points per 100 possessions can be evaluated and studied in ways that help analysts compare longer-term trends to shorter-term trends, particularly the number of points allowed for every individual possession.

Basketball Game

Average Margin of Victory

The teams with higher average margins of victory generally win national championships. Elite teams sometimes emerge in the NCAA Tournament and simply demolish the opposition. Villanova in 2018 was just such a team. Teams with big margins of victory, but coming from smaller conferences with less competition sometimes end up underrepresenting. However, teams with a large margin of victory in a power conference such as the Big Ten, is a great indicator for March.

Basketball Stadium

Factors That Predict Winning

The differences in factors that contribute to teams success are small but impactful in determining which team wins. The four factors derived most explain most of the variability in team success. The largest difference is game pace (more possessions per game). The number of blocks, defensive rebounding and the number of free throws.